According to foreign news on June 1, the Brazilian government released data on Monday showing that Brazil's iron ore exports in May were 21.5 million tons, down 28% from the same period last year. After the Brumadinho disaster, mining giant Vale is still trying to resume some production.
Exports of iron ore in May fell by more than 10% from April, close to the year low of 21.2 million tons recorded in March. The market is now using a magnifying glass to examine the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on Brazilian iron ore production and exports.
From January to May 2020, the total export of Brazilian iron ore was 115.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%.
In terms of export revenue, iron ore exports in May fell by 30% to US$1.359 billion. Iron ore prices in Brazilian ports are still US$63.3 per ton, which is nearly US$2 lower than the same period last year. Taking into account factors such as transportation costs, the price of Brazilian iron ore is very different from the price of Chinese iron ore of about US$100 per ton.
BTG Pactual's team of analysts recently released a report saying that there is a risk premium for China's iron ore prices due to concerns about the impact of the epidemic on Brazil's output, especially on Vale's output.
"We do expect that production will be greatly impacted (such as the Carajás iron mine being shut down for a longer period of time, or any major supply disruptions), so if a small impact occurs, it may be (production forecast) 1,000-1,500 A slight adjustment of 10,000 tons," the team said in a report released on Sunday.
BTG expects Vale's output this year to reach the company's output guidance lower level, and the risk is negative.
In mid-April, Vale lowered its iron ore output target for this year to 310-330 million tons (the initial target was 3.4-355 million tons). Due to the lower-than-expected first-quarter financial report, the mine’s delayed production resumed and other impacts caused by the new crown epidemic .
The company said the epidemic caused delays in the testing, evaluation and authorization process for some mines to resume production.
Vale's latest statement stated that the epidemic has not yet had a real impact on production, and the company complies with all safety regulations.
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Phoenix Mining Equipment (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is a Sino-US joint venture that produces and sells various types of crushing equipment, sand making equipment, milling equipment, crushing and screening equipment and other complete sets of sand and ore production line equipment. Scie...